Deep Analysis
Undervotes, turnout patterns, ticket splitting, and bellwether towns
Bellwether Towns
Towns whose State Rep vote best predicts NH House control
| Town | Avg Deviation | Accuracy | Elections |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough | 7.2% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| South Hampton | 8.0% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Troy | 8.8% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Greenville | 9.2% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Bath | 11.7% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Orange | 12.6% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Fitzwilliam | 13.9% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Lyman | 17.7% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Jefferson | 19.6% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Groton | 27.1% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Milford | 0.8% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Nottingham | 2.0% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Barrington | 2.9% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Kensington | 3.1% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Brookline | 3.4% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Laconia | 4.2% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Hollis | 4.7% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Acworth | 4.9% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| New Boston | 5.7% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Antrim | 5.8% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
House control: 2016: R (227-173), 2018: D (167-233), 2020: R (213-187), 2022: R (202-199), 2024: R (222-178)
Methodology: For each town, we sum all State Representative votes by party across all districts that include that town. If the town's total R votes exceed D votes, we predict R control; otherwise D. Accuracy = how many elections (out of 5) the town correctly predicted which party would win the House majority. Avg Deviation = how far the town's R-D margin differs from the statewide State Rep margin (lower = closer to statewide). Towns are ranked by accuracy first, then by lowest deviation.
Ticket Splitting
Towns where voters split between parties (>5% difference between offices)
| Year | Town | Offices | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Greens Grant | Gov: R+100% vs Sta: D+100% | D+200.0% |
| 2020 | Greens Grant | Gov: R+100% vs Sta: D+100% | D+200.0% |
| 2020 | Greens Grant | Gov: R+100% vs Sta: D+100% | D+200.0% |
| 2020 | Greens Grant | Pre: D+100% vs Gov: R+100% | R+200.0% |
| 2022 | Pinkhams Grant | Gov: R+100% vs Sta: D+100% | D+200.0% |
| 2020 | Dixville | Pre: D+100% vs Gov: R+60% | R+160.0% |
| 2020 | Gorham | Gov: R+31% vs Sta: D+100% | D+130.7% |
| 2020 | Shelburne | Gov: R+31% vs Sta: D+100% | D+130.6% |
| 2022 | Newington | Gov: R+27% vs Sta: D+100% | D+126.8% |
| 2022 | Newington | Gov: R+27% vs Sta: D+100% | D+126.8% |
| 2020 | Dixville | Pre: D+100% vs Sta: R+25% | R+125.0% |
| 2018 | Goffstown | Gov: R+18% vs Sta: D+100% | D+117.6% |
| 2024 | Newington | Gov: R+16% vs Sta: D+100% | D+115.5% |
| 2022 | Newfields | Gov: R+13% vs Sta: D+100% | D+113.1% |
| 2018 | Barrington | Gov: R+10% vs Sta: D+100% | D+110.1% |
| 2018 | Stratford | Gov: D+8% vs Sta: R+100% | R+108.5% |
| 2018 | Shelburne | Gov: R+8% vs Sta: D+100% | D+108.2% |
| 2018 | Somersworth | Gov: R+4% vs Sta: D+100% | D+103.5% |
| 2018 | Rollinsford | Gov: R+3% vs Sta: D+100% | D+103.1% |
| 2024 | Newington | Pre: R+2% vs Sta: D+100% | D+102.0% |
| 2024 | Newfields | Gov: R+1% vs Sta: D+100% | D+101.4% |
| 2018 | Gorham | Gov: R+1% vs Sta: D+100% | D+101.0% |
| 2018 | Dixville | Gov: D+0% vs Sta: R+100% | R+100.0% |
| 2024 | Dixville | Pre: D+0% vs Sta: R+100% | R+100.0% |
| 2024 | Success | Gov: D+100% vs Sta: D+0% | R+100.0% |
| 2020 | Shelburne | Pre: D+4% vs Sta: D+100% | D+96.4% |
| 2016 | Shelburne | Pre: D+4% vs Sta: D+100% | D+96.3% |
| 2016 | Berlin | Pre: D+5% vs Sta: D+100% | D+94.9% |
| 2016 | Gorham | Pre: D+5% vs Sta: D+100% | D+94.7% |
| 2022 | Madbury | Gov: D+6% vs Sta: D+100% | D+94.5% |
Undervote Patterns
Average % of voters who skip downballot races (compared to Gov/President)
| Year | State Rep | State Senate | Exec Council |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -126.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% |
| 2018 | -150.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% |
| 2020 | -153.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% |
| 2022 | -151.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| 2024 | -136.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% |
Highest Undervote Towns
| Year | Town | Office | Undervote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Grafton | State Senator | 98.7% |
| 2016 | Grafton | Executive Councilor | 98.7% |
| 2016 | Hillsborough | Executive Councilor | 98.7% |
| 2016 | Hillsborough | State Senator | 98.6% |
| 2016 | Carroll | State Senator | 98.4% |
| 2016 | Carroll | Executive Councilor | 98.4% |
| 2016 | Sullivan | State Representative | 98.3% |
| 2016 | Sullivan | State Senator | 98.3% |
| 2016 | Sullivan | Executive Councilor | 98.3% |
| 2016 | Carroll | State Representative | 96.9% |
| 2016 | Strafford | Executive Councilor | 96.6% |
| 2016 | Strafford | State Senator | 96.5% |
| 2016 | Grafton | State Representative | 96.4% |
| 2016 | Hillsborough | State Representative | 95.3% |
| 2016 | Strafford | State Representative | 93.5% |
| 2016 | Merrimack | State Senator | 83.3% |
| 2016 | Merrimack | Executive Councilor | 83.0% |
| 2020 | Whitefield | State Senator | 56.1% |
| 2022 | Newington | State Senator | 52.4% |
Turnout Patterns
Presidential vs midterm turnout drop by town
| Year | Total Votes | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 755,850 | Presidential |
| 2018 | 580,194 | Midterm |
| 2020 | 814,499 | Presidential |
| 2022 | 626,931 | Midterm |
| 2024 | 831,468 | Presidential |
Biggest Presidential-to-Midterm Drop
| Town | Avg Pres | Avg Midterm | Drop |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 3,793 | 2,454 | 35.3% |
| Raymond* | 6,057 | 3,938 | 35.0% |
| Derry | 17,881 | 11,773 | 34.2% |
| Salem | 17,567 | 11,650 | 33.7% |
| Northumberland | 1,077 | 726 | 32.6% |
| Seabrook | 4,948 | 3,382 | 31.6% |
| Greenville | 1,033 | 712 | 31.1% |
| Durham | 9,103 | 6,281 | 31.0% |
| Hudson | 14,329 | 9,907 | 30.9% |
| Allenstown | 2,418 | 1,676 | 30.7% |
| Boscawen | 2,067 | 1,435 | 30.6% |
| Dummer | 185 | 129 | 30.4% |
| Farmington | 3,448 | 2,402 | 30.3% |
| Stewartstown | 408 | 285 | 30.1% |
| Hinsdale | 1,883 | 1,318 | 30.0% |
| Northfield | 2,622 | 1,839 | 29.8% |
| Newport | 3,175 | 2,228 | 29.8% |
| Lisbon | 799 | 562 | 29.7% |
| Claremont | 5,882 | 4,158 | 29.3% |
| Pittsfield | 2,158 | 1,528 | 29.2% |