Deep Analysis
Undervotes, turnout patterns, ticket splitting, and bellwether towns
Bellwether Towns
Towns whose State Rep vote best predicts NH House control
| Town | Avg Deviation | Accuracy | Elections |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough | 7.2% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| South Hampton | 8.1% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Troy | 8.8% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Greenville | 9.2% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Bath | 11.8% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Orange | 12.6% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Fitzwilliam | 14.0% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Lyman | 17.7% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Jefferson | 19.6% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Groton | 27.1% | 5/5 (100.0%) | 5 |
| Milford | 0.8% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Nottingham | 2.0% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Barrington | 2.9% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Kensington | 3.1% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Brookline | 3.4% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Laconia | 4.2% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Acworth | 4.8% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Hollis | 4.8% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| Antrim | 5.7% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
| New Boston | 5.7% | 4/5 (80.0%) | 5 |
House control: 2016: R (226-174), 2018: D (166-234), 2020: R (213-187), 2022: R (202-199), 2024: R (222-178)
Methodology: For each town, we sum all State Representative votes by party across all districts that include that town. If the town's total R votes exceed D votes, we predict R control; otherwise D. Accuracy = how many elections (out of 5) the town correctly predicted which party would win the House majority. Avg Deviation = how far the town's R-D margin differs from the statewide State Rep margin (lower = closer to statewide). Towns are ranked by accuracy first, then by lowest deviation.
Ticket Splitting
Towns where voters split between parties (>5% difference between offices)
| Year | Town | Offices | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Enfield | Gov: R+12% vs Sta: D+59% | D+71.2% |
| 2018 | Madbury | Gov: D+8% vs Sta: D+78% | D+70.1% |
| 2016 | Dummer | Pre: R+21% vs Sta: D+45% | D+65.9% |
| 2020 | Newfields | Gov: R+33% vs Sta: D+32% | D+65.0% |
| 2016 | Stark | Pre: R+31% vs Sta: D+33% | D+63.6% |
| 2018 | Hinsdale | Gov: D+12% vs Sta: D+74% | D+62.2% |
| 2016 | Dorchester | Pre: R+46% vs Sta: D+16% | D+61.9% |
| 2018 | Carroll | Gov: R+17% vs Sta: D+44% | D+60.9% |
| 2016 | Milan | Pre: R+16% vs Sta: D+43% | D+59.2% |
| 2020 | Newmarket | Gov: R+9% vs Sta: D+49% | D+58.1% |
| 2018 | Chesterfield | Gov: D+10% vs Sta: D+67% | D+57.2% |
| 2018 | Walpole | Gov: D+15% vs Sta: D+72% | D+56.6% |
| 2018 | Westmoreland | Gov: D+14% vs Sta: D+70% | D+55.9% |
| 2018 | Portsmouth | Gov: D+30% vs Sta: D+86% | D+55.4% |
| 2018 | Keene | Gov: D+39% vs Sta: D+93% | D+54.7% |
| 2020 | Lebanon | Gov: D+12% vs Sta: D+67% | D+54.7% |
| 2024 | Newmarket | Gov: D+18% vs Sta: D+73% | D+54.4% |
| 2018 | Newfields | Gov: R+16% vs Sta: D+38% | D+54.3% |
| 2018 | Jefferson | Gov: R+27% vs Sta: D+27% | D+54.0% |
| 2020 | Lincoln | Pre: D+13% vs Gov: R+41% | R+53.5% |
| 2024 | Holderness | Gov: D+6% vs Sta: D+59% | D+53.5% |
| 2016 | Fitzwilliam | Gov: R+3% vs Sta: R+55% | R+52.4% |
| 2020 | Waterville Valley | Pre: D+30% vs Gov: R+22% | R+52.4% |
| 2018 | Milan | Gov: R+18% vs Sta: D+34% | D+52.3% |
| 2016 | Easton | Gov: D+42% vs Sta: R+10% | R+51.9% |
| 2024 | Portsmouth | Gov: D+26% vs Sta: D+78% | D+51.6% |
| 2020 | Boscawen | Gov: R+44% vs Sta: D+8% | D+51.4% |
| 2024 | Ashland | Gov: R+10% vs Sta: D+42% | D+51.3% |
| 2016 | Fitzwilliam | Pre: R+4% vs Sta: R+55% | R+51.2% |
| 2016 | Franconia | Pre: D+35% vs Sta: R+16% | R+51.2% |
Undervote Patterns
Average % of voters who skip downballot races (compared to Gov/President)
| Year | State Rep | State Senate | Exec Council |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 12.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% |
| 2018 | 7.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| 2020 | 7.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% |
| 2022 | 6.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% |
| 2024 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% |
Highest Undervote Towns
| Year | Town | Office | Undervote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Whitefield | State Senator | 56.1% |
| 2018 | Stratford | State Representative | 54.6% |
| 2022 | Newington | State Representative | 52.7% |
| 2022 | Newington | State Senator | 52.4% |
| 2016 | Madbury | State Representative | 45.0% |
| 2022 | Newfields | State Senator | 44.0% |
| 2016 | Derry | State Representative | 43.7% |
| 2022 | Piermont | State Representative | 43.3% |
| 2018 | Clarksville | State Representative | 42.3% |
| 2018 | Barrington | State Senator | 41.8% |
| 2022 | Warren | State Representative | 41.7% |
| 2022 | Landaff | State Representative | 41.6% |
| 2016 | Stratford | State Representative | 41.5% |
| 2024 | Newfields | State Representative | 41.2% |
| 2016 | Durham | State Representative | 40.9% |
| 2018 | Colebrook | State Representative | 40.8% |
| 2018 | Somersworth | State Senator | 40.6% |
| 2022 | Derry | State Senator | 40.0% |
| 2024 | Ashland | State Representative | 39.8% |
Turnout Patterns
Presidential vs midterm turnout drop by town
| Year | Total Votes | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 755,850 | Presidential |
| 2018 | 580,194 | Midterm |
| 2020 | 814,499 | Presidential |
| 2022 | 626,931 | Midterm |
| 2024 | 831,468 | Presidential |
Biggest Presidential-to-Midterm Drop
| Town | Avg Pres | Avg Midterm | Drop |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 3,793 | 2,454 | 35.3% |
| Raymond* | 6,057 | 3,938 | 35.0% |
| Derry | 17,881 | 11,773 | 34.2% |
| Salem | 17,567 | 11,650 | 33.7% |
| Northumberland | 1,077 | 726 | 32.6% |
| Seabrook | 4,948 | 3,382 | 31.6% |
| Greenville | 1,033 | 712 | 31.1% |
| Durham | 9,103 | 6,281 | 31.0% |
| Hudson | 14,329 | 9,907 | 30.9% |
| Allenstown | 2,418 | 1,676 | 30.7% |
| Boscawen | 2,067 | 1,435 | 30.6% |
| Dummer | 185 | 129 | 30.4% |
| Farmington | 3,448 | 2,402 | 30.3% |
| Stewartstown | 408 | 285 | 30.1% |
| Hinsdale | 1,883 | 1,318 | 30.0% |
| Northfield | 2,622 | 1,839 | 29.8% |
| Newport | 3,175 | 2,228 | 29.8% |
| Lisbon | 799 | 562 | 29.7% |
| Claremont | 5,882 | 4,158 | 29.3% |
| Pittsfield | 2,158 | 1,528 | 29.2% |