Statistical Analysis
Swing districts, correlations, and long-term trends
Swing Districts
State House districts most likely to flip based on margin, trend, and volatility
Single-Seat Flip Targets
Single-seat districts with close margins trending against the current holder
| District | Holder | 2022 | 2024 | Flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hillsborough 37
Amherst, Milford |
Murray (D) | D+7.7% | D+0.8% | D→R |
|
Grafton 7
Campton |
Lucas (D) | D+1.1% | D+1.1% | — |
|
Grafton 9
Canaan, Dorchester, Orange |
Oppel (D) | D+8.1% | D+2.8% | D→R |
|
Cheshire 13
Dublin, Jaffrey |
Ames (D) | D+7.6% | D+3.7% | D→R |
D Seats at Risk
Multi-seat districts where a D seat could flip to R
| District | Seats | Marginal Race | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Strafford 4
Barrington, Strafford |
1R / 2D | Howard beat Wuelper by 16 votes (0.2%) | R+0.9/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 24
Manchester Ward 4 |
2D | Bouchard beat Demars by 33 votes (1.0%) | R+4.8/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 17
Manchester Ward 2 |
2D | Preece beat Prescott by 36 votes (0.8%) | D+0.1/cycle |
|
Merrimack 8
Bradford, Henniker, Warner |
3D | Payeur beat Wells by 57 votes (1.1%) | R+0.2/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 22
Manchester Ward 11 |
2D | Leapley beat Gabler by 64 votes (2.0%) | D+1.4/cycle |
|
Carroll 1
Conway |
3D | Buco beat Umberger by 75 votes (1.3%) | D+3.2/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 4
Nashua Ward 2 |
3D | Newman beat McCarthy by 77 votes (1.4%) | D+0.4/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 9
Nashua Ward 5 |
3D | Manohar beat Johnson by 78 votes (1.3%) | R+0.5/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 12
Merrimack |
5R / 3D | Thomas beat Frechette by 95 votes (0.6%) | R+2.9/cycle |
|
Cheshire 6
Chesterfield, Hinsdale, Westmoreland |
2D | Harvey beat Graves by 111 votes (2.2%) | R+12.6/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 43
Milford |
2R / 2D | Dargie beat Facques by 125 votes (1.5%) | R+1.6/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 7
Nashua Ward 7 |
3D | Sofikitis beat Lewis by 129 votes (3.7%) | D+9.1/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 16
Manchester Ward 6 |
1R / 1D | Bergeron beat Infantine by 133 votes (2.7%) | D+0.2/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 35
Hollis |
1R / 1D | McGhee beat Homola by 174 votes (3.1%) | R+3.2/cycle |
|
Belknap 5
Laconia Ward 1, Laconia Ward 3, Laconia Ward 4, Laconia Ward 5, Laconia Ward 6 |
3R / 1D | Clair beat Littlefield by 177 votes (2.5%) | D+6.1/cycle |
R Seats at Risk
Multi-seat districts where an R seat could flip to D
| District | Seats | Marginal Race | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Hillsborough 18
Manchester Ward 12 |
1R / 1D | Kesselring beat Smith by 9 votes (0.2%) | R+2.0/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 29
Goffstown |
4R | Giasson beat Craig by 82 votes (0.9%) | R+2.3/cycle |
|
Coos 1
Dalton, Lancaster, Northumberland, Stratford |
2R | Tierney beat Fountain by 88 votes (2.8%) | D+7.7/cycle |
|
Strafford 1
Farmington |
2R | Hall beat Krasner by 108 votes (3.4%) | D+1.4/cycle |
|
Rockingham 1
Northwood, Nottingham |
3R | Tudor beat Rafter by 129 votes (2.1%) | R+0.4/cycle |
|
Sullivan 6
Claremont Ward 1, Claremont Ward 2, Claremont Ward 3, Croydon |
1R / 2D | Hemingway beat Merchant by 144 votes (2.7%) | D+6.8/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 10
Nashua Ward 9 |
1R / 2D | Ohm beat Moran by 149 votes (3.0%) | R+5.8/cycle |
|
Merrimack 12
Pembroke |
2R | Seaworth beat Schuett by 149 votes (3.6%) | R+7.0/cycle |
|
Grafton 1
Bath, Lisbon, Littleton, Lyman, Monroe, Sugar Hill |
3R | Beaulier beat Massimilla by 156 votes (2.8%) | R+1.8/cycle |
|
Coos 5
Berlin |
2R | Morency beat Cascadden by 164 votes (4.4%) | R+6.4/cycle |
|
Carroll 3
Madison, Moultonborough, Tamworth |
2R | Hamblen beat Johnson by 165 votes (2.5%) | D+0.1/cycle |
|
Merrimack 3
Franklin Ward 1, Franklin Ward 2, Franklin Ward 3 |
2R | Gonzalez beat Burns by 198 votes (5.2%) | D+0.3/cycle |
|
Belknap 2
Meredith |
2R | Lunney beat Thomas by 199 votes (4.9%) | R+2.4/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 20
Manchester Ward 9 |
1R / 1D | Dupont beat Query by 209 votes (5.9%) | D+6.4/cycle |
|
Merrimack 4
Canterbury, Loudon |
2R | Cambrils beat Heath by 212 votes (4.4%) | R+1.4/cycle |
Trending Republican
| District | 2024 Margin | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Coos 6 Beans Grant, Beans Purchase, Chandlers Purchase, Crawfords Purchase, Cutts Grant, Gorham, Greens Grant, Hadleys Purchase, Low and Burbanks Grant, Martins Location, Pinkhams Grant, Randolph, Sargents Purchase, Shelburne, Success, Thompson and Meserves Purchase | R+9.0% | +25.0 |
| Strafford 10 Durham | D+36.0% | +23.8 |
| Hillsborough 25 Manchester Ward 5 | R+3.1% | +17.3 |
| Belknap 2 Meredith | R+16.1% | +14.0 |
| Merrimack 23 Concord Ward 9 | D+6.0% | +12.6 |
| Cheshire 6 Chesterfield, Hinsdale, Westmoreland | D+2.3% | +12.5 |
| Coos 5 Berlin | R+6.9% | +12.4 |
| Rockingham 17 Windham | R+21.7% | +12.0 |
| Hillsborough 4 Nashua Ward 2 | D+3.0% | +11.8 |
| Grafton 8 Ashland, Holderness, Plymouth | D+8.8% | +11.8 |
| Cheshire 5 Surry, Walpole | D+14.1% | +11.8 |
| Hillsborough 17 Manchester Ward 2 | D+8.0% | +11.0 |
| Merrimack 18 Concord Ward 4 | D+34.0% | +10.9 |
| Hillsborough 26 Manchester Ward 7 | R+1.0% | +10.7 |
| Hillsborough 33 Peterborough, Sharon | D+30.7% | +10.6 |
Trending Democratic
| District | 2024 Margin | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Grafton 10 Bridgewater, Bristol | R+7.4% | -11.1 |
| Merrimack 7 New London, Newbury | D+16.1% | -8.7 |
| Rockingham 14 East Kingston, Kingston | R+8.3% | -7.0 |
| Rockingham 5 Epping | D+0.6% | -6.3 |
| Merrimack 29 Concord Ward 10, Concord Ward 4, Concord Ward 9 | D+29.9% | -5.7 |
| Rockingham 8 Danville | R+23.8% | -5.1 |
| Strafford 9 Rochester Ward 6 | D+3.8% | -4.7 |
| Rockingham 12 Stratham | D+13.4% | -4.6 |
| Carroll 4 Brookfield, Eaton, Effingham, Freedom, Wakefield | R+17.2% | -4.0 |
Urban/Rural Divide
D+0.2
Large Towns
R+14.4
Small Towns
R+14.6
Rural Gap
Most Republican Towns
| Town | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Stewartstown | R+65.6% | 2,418 |
| Wentworths Location | R+61.9% | 126 |
| Pittsburg | R+58.1% | 3,204 |
| Windsor | R+58.0% | 942 |
| Errol | R+50.0% | 1,245 |
| Columbia | R+50.0% | 2,264 |
| Clarksville | R+47.3% | 1,048 |
| New Ipswich | R+45.8% | 25,023 |
| Dummer | R+45.5% | 1,042 |
| Colebrook | R+44.2% | 6,282 |
Most Democratic Towns
| Town | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Lyme | D+80.3% | 9,839 |
| Hanover | D+78.6% | 55,381 |
| Lebanon Ward 1 | D+60.1% | 16,352 |
| Lebanon Ward 2 | D+59.3% | 18,102 |
| Lebanon Ward 3 | D+58.8% | 17,769 |
| Durham | D+55.3% | 69,250 |
| Portsmouth Ward 2 | D+54.1% | 21,017 |
| Portsmouth Ward 5 | D+52.6% | 18,614 |
| Portsmouth Ward 1 | D+50.9% | 18,184 |
| Newfield | D+49.3% | 2,336 |
County Long-Term Trends
Partisan shift from 2016 to 2024
| County | 2016 | 2024 | Shift | Per Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coos | D+28.0% | R+25.1% | R+53.1 | 6.64 |
| Strafford | D+35.8% | D+15.6% | R+20.2 | 2.53 |
| Merrimack | D+12.7% | D+0.2% | R+12.5 | 1.56 |
| Sullivan | D+0.1% | R+9.5% | R+9.6 | 1.2 |
| Cheshire | D+17.1% | D+13.6% | R+3.5 | 0.44 |
| Belknap | R+15.8% | R+19.1% | R+3.3 | 0.41 |
| Grafton | D+30.4% | D+40.1% | D+9.6 | -1.2 |
| Carroll | R+17.9% | R+7.9% | D+10.0 | -1.25 |
| Hillsborough | R+12.9% | R+2.6% | D+10.3 | -1.29 |
| Rockingham | R+23.3% | R+12.8% | D+10.5 | -1.32 |