Statistical Analysis
Swing districts, correlations, and long-term trends
Swing Districts
State House districts most likely to flip based on margin, trend, and volatility
Single-Seat Flip Targets
Single-seat districts with close margins trending against the current holder
| District | Holder | 2022 | 2024 | Flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hillsborough 37
|
Murray (D) | D+7.7% | D+0.8% | D→R |
|
Grafton 7
|
Lucas (D) | D+1.1% | D+1.1% | — |
|
Grafton 9
|
Oppel (D) | D+8.1% | D+2.8% | D→R |
|
Cheshire 13
|
Ames (D) | D+7.6% | D+3.7% | D→R |
D Seats at Risk
Multi-seat districts where a D seat could flip to R
| District | Seats | Marginal Race | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Strafford 4
|
1R / 2D | Howard beat Wuelper by 16 votes (0.2%) | R+0.9/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 24
|
2D | Bouchard beat Demars by 33 votes (1.0%) | R+4.8/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 17
|
2D | Preece beat Prescott by 36 votes (0.8%) | D+0.1/cycle |
|
Merrimack 8
|
3D | Payeur beat Wells by 57 votes (1.1%) | R+0.2/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 22
|
2D | Leapley beat Gabler by 64 votes (2.0%) | D+1.4/cycle |
|
Carroll 1
|
3D | Buco beat Umberger by 75 votes (1.3%) | D+3.2/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 4
|
3D | Newman beat McCarthy by 77 votes (1.4%) | D+0.4/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 9
|
3D | Manohar beat Johnson by 78 votes (1.3%) | R+0.5/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 12
|
5R / 3D | Thomas beat Frechette by 95 votes (0.6%) | R+2.9/cycle |
|
Cheshire 6
|
2D | Harvey beat Graves by 111 votes (2.2%) | R+12.6/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 43
|
2R / 2D | Dargie beat Facques by 125 votes (1.5%) | R+1.6/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 7
|
3D | Sofikitis beat Lewis by 129 votes (3.7%) | D+9.1/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 16
|
1R / 1D | Bergeron beat Infantine by 133 votes (2.7%) | D+0.2/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 35
|
1R / 1D | McGhee beat Homola by 174 votes (3.1%) | R+3.2/cycle |
|
Belknap 5
|
3R / 1D | Clair beat Littlefield by 177 votes (2.5%) | D+6.1/cycle |
R Seats at Risk
Multi-seat districts where an R seat could flip to D
| District | Seats | Marginal Race | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Hillsborough 18
|
1R / 1D | Kesselring beat Smith by 9 votes (0.2%) | R+2.0/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 29
|
4R | Giasson beat Craig by 82 votes (0.9%) | R+2.3/cycle |
|
Coos 1
|
2R | Tierney beat Fountain by 88 votes (2.8%) | D+7.7/cycle |
|
Strafford 1
|
2R | Hall beat Krasner by 108 votes (3.4%) | D+1.4/cycle |
|
Rockingham 1
|
3R | Tudor beat Rafter by 129 votes (2.1%) | R+0.4/cycle |
|
Sullivan 6
|
1R / 2D | Hemingway beat Merchant by 144 votes (2.7%) | D+6.8/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 10
|
1R / 2D | Ohm beat Moran by 149 votes (3.0%) | R+5.8/cycle |
|
Merrimack 12
|
2R | Seaworth beat Schuett by 149 votes (3.6%) | R+7.0/cycle |
|
Grafton 1
|
3R | Beaulier beat Massimilla by 156 votes (2.8%) | R+1.8/cycle |
|
Coos 5
|
2R | Morency beat Cascadden by 164 votes (4.4%) | R+6.4/cycle |
|
Carroll 3
|
2R | Hamblen beat Johnson by 165 votes (2.5%) | D+0.1/cycle |
|
Merrimack 3
|
2R | Gonzalez beat Burns by 198 votes (5.2%) | D+0.3/cycle |
|
Belknap 2
|
2R | Lunney beat Thomas by 199 votes (4.9%) | R+2.4/cycle |
|
Hillsborough 20
|
1R / 1D | Dupont beat Query by 209 votes (5.9%) | D+6.4/cycle |
|
Merrimack 4
|
2R | Cambrils beat Heath by 212 votes (4.4%) | R+1.4/cycle |
Trending Republican
| District | 2024 Margin | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Coos 6 | R+9.0% | +25.0 |
| Strafford 10 | D+36.0% | +23.8 |
| Hillsborough 25 | R+3.1% | +17.3 |
| Belknap 2 | R+16.1% | +14.0 |
| Merrimack 23 | D+6.0% | +12.6 |
| Cheshire 6 | D+2.3% | +12.5 |
| Coos 5 | R+6.9% | +12.4 |
| Rockingham 17 | R+21.7% | +12.0 |
| Hillsborough 4 | D+3.0% | +11.8 |
| Grafton 8 | D+8.8% | +11.8 |
| Cheshire 5 | D+14.1% | +11.8 |
| Hillsborough 17 | D+8.0% | +11.0 |
| Merrimack 18 | D+34.0% | +10.9 |
| Hillsborough 26 | R+1.0% | +10.7 |
| Hillsborough 33 | D+30.7% | +10.6 |
Trending Democratic
| District | 2024 Margin | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Grafton 10 | R+7.4% | -11.1 |
| Merrimack 7 | D+16.1% | -8.7 |
| Rockingham 14 | R+8.3% | -7.0 |
| Rockingham 5 | D+0.6% | -6.3 |
| Merrimack 29 | D+29.9% | -5.7 |
| Rockingham 8 | R+23.8% | -5.1 |
| Strafford 9 | D+3.8% | -4.7 |
| Rockingham 12 | D+13.4% | -4.6 |
| Carroll 4 | R+17.2% | -4.0 |
Urban/Rural Divide
D+0.6
Large Towns
R+13.4
Small Towns
R+14.0
Rural Gap
Most Republican Towns
| Town | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Stewartstown | R+65.6% | 2,418 |
| Pittsburg | R+58.1% | 3,204 |
| Windsor | R+58.0% | 942 |
| Errol | R+50.0% | 1,245 |
| Columbia | R+50.0% | 2,264 |
| Clarksville | R+47.3% | 1,048 |
| New Ipswich | R+45.8% | 25,023 |
| Dummer | R+45.5% | 1,042 |
| Colebrook | R+44.2% | 6,282 |
| Stark | R+43.7% | 1,800 |
Most Democratic Towns
| Town | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Lyme | D+80.3% | 9,839 |
| Hanover | D+78.6% | 55,381 |
| Lebanon Ward 1 | D+60.1% | 16,352 |
| Lebanon Ward 2 | D+59.3% | 18,102 |
| Lebanon Ward 3 | D+58.8% | 17,769 |
| Durham | D+55.3% | 69,250 |
| Portsmouth Ward 2 | D+54.1% | 21,017 |
| Portsmouth Ward 5 | D+52.6% | 18,614 |
| Portsmouth Ward 1 | D+50.9% | 18,184 |
| Newfield | D+49.3% | 2,336 |
County Long-Term Trends
Partisan shift from 2016 to 2024
| County | 2016 | 2024 | Shift | Per Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coos | D+28.0% | R+25.1% | R+53.1 | 6.64 |
| Strafford | D+35.8% | D+15.6% | R+20.2 | 2.53 |
| Merrimack | D+12.7% | D+0.2% | R+12.5 | 1.56 |
| Sullivan | D+0.1% | R+9.5% | R+9.6 | 1.2 |
| Cheshire | D+17.1% | D+13.6% | R+3.5 | 0.44 |
| Belknap | R+15.8% | R+19.1% | R+3.3 | 0.41 |
| Grafton | D+30.4% | D+40.1% | D+9.6 | -1.2 |
| Rockingham | R+22.5% | R+12.8% | D+9.7 | -1.21 |
| Carroll | R+17.9% | R+7.9% | D+10.0 | -1.25 |
| D+0.1% | D+10.3% | D+10.2 | -1.69 | |
| Hillsborough | R+12.9% | R+2.6% | D+10.3 | -1.29 |